Immigrationboards.com

While waiting for RC (EEA2), I started to pay attention to some immigration news.

It looks like UK aims to slash down immigration figures : UK immigration minister said the ambition remains to see immigration number do come down ( http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-31638174) Also, here, http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/ ... 98000.html

Recently they started to change/ tighten Tier 4 rules. Though it does not affect me yet, it raised question who is going to be the next? Because their target falls far shorter than current realistic figures. How can they reach their target? The only way is to change current rules, "tighten" the legislation.
Though EEA FM was entitled the right in UK when their EEA sponsor is a qualified person, Law can be changed right?
It is going to affect many people's lives if it happens. However, if it's politically determined, it could still be done......

Just want to hear your opinion. Maybe have a realistic vision about the future.

It will not, at this stage, affect EU nationals and their EEA Family Members. The UK cannot change the rules as you suggest. They make it harder probably, but cant just change them as they feel.

The UK is still very much part of the EU and even if the vote to leave next year is a 'yes', it will take quite a bit of time to untangle and complete the process.

Thanks CR001!

Indeed, my question is a bit crazy... ! It does make a lot of sense that it can't change overnight.
And I can't even imagine "what if" they vote to leave next year...

Usually eea2 warriors awaiting decision very oftenly get frustrated from day to day news. Don't give attention to EU news although one day UK have to leave EU but it will certainly takes a lot time. I believe currently the whole EU is busy in refugees issue.

UKBA HUNTER wrote:Usually eea2 warriors awaiting decision very oftenly get frustrated from day to day news. Don't give attention to EU news although one day UK have to leave EU but it will certainly takes a lot time. I believe currently the whole EU is busy in refugees issue.

Thanks for your respond UKBA hunter! Speaking of refugees, Hungary closed the border to any refugees...

Back to EEA2, guess we could expect 5 years of certainty ahead once RC proved.
Just out of curiosity, how long were you thinking when you say "a lot time" (above)?
And do you think UK has to leave EU?

Thankfully UKBA always introduce transitional measure especially when a big change is taking place to benefit the existing population under a specific route. And same will apply if UK come out from EU.
But in the meantime you just concentrate on Interview for which they may call you to Liverpool or may visit your home.

"Always do what you are afraid to do"

UKBA HUNTER wrote:Thankfully UKBA always introduce transitional measure especially when a big change is taking place to benefit the existing population under a specific route. And same will apply if UK come out from EU.
But in the meantime you just concentrate on Interview for which they may call you to Liverpool or may visit your home.

Thanks UKBA hunter for the discussion! That makes a lot of sense. I always tend to think a little bit far to at least have a rough idea about possibility of future. But in the end, life is just full of twist and turns. We never know. So 5 years of certainty is good enough for me.

Probably not what you want to hear, but let me give you two additional points to ponder over.

a) The UK has pretty much tightened its own immigration rules to the point where it is suffocating universities and businesses. The only major route that it has not touched so far (because it can't) is the EEA routes.

The right of freedom of movement for EEA citizens is a part of the treaties and integral to the EU. But there is (I believe) no such protection for non-EEA family members of EEA citizens. These rights are given by directives and/or judicial interpretation. The last two can be modified much more easily than the treaties.

It is possible that as a part of the renegotiation for the UK staying in the EU, that the UK could negotiate for either amendments or an opt-out (which may require treaty changes) to the directives granting such rights.

So, it is possible that even before the referendum, such rights may go.

My personal gut feeling is that David Cameron will negotiate some reductions in the EEA routes (excluding EEA citizens themselves), such as closing of the Surinder Singh route, to make the positive case for the referendum.

b)If the UK were to leave the EU, it will need to formally give a two year notice to the EU. So, for at least two years from a No vote, the UK will remain a part of the EU. Assuming that the UK votes No in summer 2016, we are looking at summer 2018 being the earliest that the UK actually leaves the EU. It will likely be much later as there will have to be negotiations on many points.

secret.simon wrote:Probably not what you want to hear, but let me give you two additional points to ponder over. ...

Hi Simon! Many thanks for sharing your view and I'm absolutely open and keen to hear honest opinion.
Most of analysis makes good sense to me. Just one question. If free movement for EEA citizen still stands, Not allowing them to bring their spouse and children sounds a little inhumane... isn't it? So complete depriving the right sounds not realistic... However, I'm aware I have no idea about EU immigration regulation history. So my question might sounds silly. Wait to be enlightened.

Plus, ONLY from economic perspective, problem from immigrants, if any, is not about its number, but more about income... (This might be a sensitive topic. As I addressed, "only from economic perspective", the fact is high income immigrants contribute country's economy growth and help to improve the society, not the opposite). So if there is going to be reduction, only sensible thing to do, again only from economic perspective, is increase income threshold.

In the end, whether UK leave or remain EU, or renegotiation if remain, is way bigger topic than just immigration issue. It is very interesting to watch how history unfolds itself.

Nina Roche wrote:If free movement for EEA citizen still stands, Not allowing them to bring their spouse and children sounds a little inhumane... isn't it?

If it is inhumane, they have the freedom not to come to the UK Nobody is compelling them to.

Also, nobody is suggesting an absolute bar on spouses and children accompanying their family members. All I think will happen is that the jurisdiction for spousal and family visas will be returned to national governments, as opposed to being granted by EU law. That is to say that EEA citizens in the UK will be treated at par with British citizens when it comes to having their non-EEA family members join them.

Also, look at the Surinder Singh route. It is a legal way to frustrate laws passed by the democratically elected government of the UK. People in the EU have been fussed about the democratic legitimacy of the will of the Greek people being overridden by the EU. But we have this lack of democratic mandate right here in our own country.

Nina Roche wrote:problem from immigrants, if any, is not about its number, but more about income

There are multiple ways of looking at this statement. At one level, you are quite correct that it is a political totem pole that has been erected by the UK government and that you can argue it is an artificial political problem, not an economic one.

On the other hand, UKIP's popularity has been in the areas where white working class families have been squeezed out by lower wages (and to an extent lower living standards) caused by an influx of EU migrants from Eastern Europe. The UK government can not control the EU migrants themselves and so, while not targeting them directly, can and does try to counteract any positive draw to the UK by making it difficult for their non-EEA family.

As regards the economic sense of it all, high value/high income migrants are welcome in most countries (except probably London, where we have been priced out our own housing ). But are their spouses and children equally likely to be high income in their own right?

Also, I think the issue at hand is the absolute right that EU law gives non-EEA family members, without taking into account, for instance, if they meet any national legal requirement or standards. I think it is the absolute nature of that right that is the main concern.

If you look at EU law regarding "extended family members", it is much more measured. National governments must "facilitate" their movement, but that is not an absolute right to trammel over national law, only a relatively qualified right. I see that as the direction of travel as regards EU law.

Nina Roche wrote:It is very interesting to watch how history unfolds itself.

Indeed, we are watching history in the making. From the fall of the Iron Curtain and the Berlin Wall to the rising of the Wire Curtain (the barbed wire fence between Hungary and Serbia), the rise and the fall of the EU, we are in the midst of history being made.

Mind you, all of this has happened in the past. Whether it was the First Reich (the Holy Roman Empire), the Kalmar Union (of Denmark , Sweden and Norway) or the Latin Monetary Union (that suffered the same fate as seems to have befallen the Euro), it has all happened before. It is a great shame and a pity that people do not learn the history of their own countries.

Finally, I thank you for your courtesy in your response to my earlier post. Many people on these forums do not wish to hear an alternate viewpoint or be challenged on their beliefs and get over-defensive or ignore anything stated to the contrary of their opinions.

secret.simon wrote: All I think will happen is that the jurisdiction for spousal and family visas will be returned to national governments, as opposed to being granted by EU law.
People in the EU have been fussed about the democratic legitimacy of the will of the Greek people being overridden by the EU. But we have this lack of democratic mandate right here in our own country.

This highlights immigration issue is just a drop in the ocean under whole EU context. Hard or probably impossible to conclude without clearing the context. Some lines just get blurred or disappear when you put things into different context. ... Ok, where I'm going with this... I don't know. I know that my brain is not built to process political things. Only one thing I tend to believe when it comes to politics is power balance and re-balance

Then just a comment on white working class issue. This comes back to economy. The essence of capitalism is competition. If independence means control, protection and barrier, I guess eventually, problems would surface one way or another. But not much cares about "eventually".

secret.simon wrote: Also, I think the issue at hand is the absolute right that EU law gives non-EEA family members, without taking into account, for instance, if they meet any national legal requirement or standards. I think it is the absolute nature of that right that is the main concern.

I tend to agree.

secret.simon wrote: Finally, I thank you for your courtesy in your response to my earlier post.

I really thank you for sharing your thoughts. I'm not just being polite. I actually neither have much knowledge nor strong opinion on any of this. So I am interested to listen all kinds of view and learn something. Though it is in my interest, there is nothing to take personally. In the end, if I get to stay, I stay. If not, back to Paris or maybe Hongkong or survive somewhere else....
Like Joker says, Why so seriou....ssssss