A bit presumptuous, overly optimistic view, I do not for one second think that free movement of labour within the EU will be altered, UK may be given special status, be no under any illusion that this will dramatically change the way freedom of labour rules currently operates, the UK will not get close to what it got during the February negotiations.secret.simon wrote:I agree with other interlocuters on these forums that we need to be careful of the language that is being used in these discussions. The country is divided pretty evenly and both sides have intellectually valid points of view that should be respected. Branding one side dearly beloved or xenophobic does not add any value or depth to a discussion.
Given that half the country has expressed an opinion that is relatively hostile to immigration, I think that we, as migrants and families of migrants, need to reflect on it and address these concerns, not get on the high horse of "rights". It is the society around you that grants rights, not scraps of paper.
Returning to the topic under discussion, I do not think that the UK will actually ever invoke Article 50. Brexit has already caused the EU and its other member states to reevaluate their priorities. Negotiations are already underway across the EU. Germany is worried about further fragmentation and the German and French foreign ministers will be presenting a paper today on "allowing space" in the EU for countries who do not want further integration.
As for the newer members, the Czech Prime Minister has raised the possibility of a Crezit. A former Polish Prime Minster has argued for a looser European union of nation states.
Elections ar due across the EU in the next year and a half. Spain goes to the polls tomorrow, France in May 2017 and Germany in August 2017. The governments in these coutries will face equally strident calls for a lesser EU now. That may change their attitude towards Brexit negotiations.
It is thus entirely possible that we remain in the EU, but that the EU is forced to change significantly. In a sense, this is a test of the EU as well, as it has to decide whether it is a political, pragmatic entity open to negotiations and compromise or it is an ideologically driven one.
My opinion is that the Brexit negotiations will take place under Article 48, which is basically an amendment of the original treaties of the EU. That would allow the UK to have a special status in the EU. Being written into the EU treaties, it would need to be ratified by all the 28 countries of the EU and the European Parliament. But that would be the case for a Brexit deal under Article 50 anyway, so both have the same level of difficulty. Article 48 was the basis of the Treaty that allowed Greenland to leave the then EEC in 1985, so there is historical precedence for that possibility.
The country has voted to leave and should so leave, the public won't be satisfied, just as you won't be, you will come back here ranting about how expansive cjeu judgment had been, you will criticise Eurocrats for anything they do either rightly or wrongly, the Parliaments shall never remain blemishless. I voted out for entirely different reasons, of which I now regret. Europe will heal from its shock, but it may be good for Europe as they can do away with a member they will never have been able to accommodate its ever growing a la carte.
I should add that it appears to me very rich coming from someone like you, who seem to hate the EU with an unenviable degree of passion, I recognise as you once have, perhaps the free movement of labour should not have been expanded to the Eastern block, perhaps on a piecemeal scale as their economy develops, that may be the undoing of the EU and I share that view. However for someone who seem to despise the EU as I have described, you should seem to lack conviction by showing an alternative way to leaving. Vote leave and stay OUT.
