Article 50 has been triggered. What now?

[atriponel]

Hello everyone

I'm sure there are a lot of concerned and confused people like myself here...
Will there be any changes for us (EU nationals AND their non-EU family members) now that Article 50 has been triggered? Or will it remain the same for a two-year period?

I am also quite curious to see how Theresa May will manage to secure the rights of EU nationals (and their family I assume?) living here in the UK. And how long will it take? It sounds like years of work...

I know it's all just speculating at the moment but living in limbo is just hell.

Any comments or thoughts are greatly appreciated

Anastasia T.

[MrSlyFox]

It's just a waiting game right now, free movement will continue until the UK leaves the EU. But hopefully we will hear about what will happen early in the negotiations.
You might like to check out this forum:
referendum-news-and-developments-f55/

[atriponel]

Thank you!

[alterhase58]

Recommend everyone gets their documentation in order, and as far as possible applies for PR, even better if you qualify apply for citizenship then you don't have any more worries re. EU Aspect.

[secret.simon]

living in limbo is just hell.

Well, Limbo is a neutral zone for good pagans and infants, on the boundaries of Hell (perhaps like the Calais jungle; the promised land is in sight but so far away) in Christian theology. So the feeling is understandable. But I digress.

Recommend everyone gets their documentation in order,

This, I think, is the best option at the moment. In UK immigration law, the date of application and/or the date of issue of a Home office document can have impact much further down the line, including at later applications much further in the future (for example, requirements for spouses of UK citizens who applied before 9th July 2012 and after are markedly different, even in 2017).

Therefore, although EU law invests you with a status without paperwork, it is in your best interests to get appropriate Home office documentation as soon as possible, whether it be a Registration Certificate or Card or a PR certificate or card.

Will there be any changes for us (EU nationals AND their non-EU family members) now that Article 50 has been triggered? Or will it remain the same for a two-year period?

For at least two years, EU law will continue to apply. What happens on this day in two years is anybody's guess. A lot of crystal balls shattered on 24rd June 2016 and I doubt anybody (not even the Prime Minister) can give you a prediction, much less a cast-iron guarantee.

I am also quite curious to see how Theresa May will manage to secure the rights of EU nationals (and their family I assume?) living here in the UK. And how long will it take? It sounds like years of work

Not really. This is not the first time that the status of foreigners living in the UK has changed. We have had a lot of experience through the past fifty years. The current Immigration Act 1971, which still governs the stay of non-EEA citizens, was a response to an inflow of a high number of Commonwealth citizens, which was a pre-EU quasi-"free movement of people" zone.

What is different is that there is another party to negotiate with. Such change will not be unilateral, but a part of a negotiated agreement.

Apologies for harrying the mods again, but should this thread be merged with this one? They are quite similar in context.

[secret.simon]

Text and analysis of the Article 50 letter.

The EU Council will meet on April 29th to discuss Brexit and give the official response to the letter.

[secret.simon]

Everything you need to know about post-Brexit immigration in 5 minutes

This photo marks the moment it all went wrong for Theresa May
In spite of the negative headline, I think the article (and its author and the Independent in general) has a balanced coverage of the Brexit process. Well worth a read for both sides of the debate.

Brexit: All we hear about is Article 50, but what's in Articles one to 49?
Am I the only person who thinks that the BBC has mixed up the Articles of Directive 2004/38/EC and the Treaties?

[mkhan2525]

http://www.politics.co.uk/blogs/2017/03 ... article-50

[secret.simon]

European Parliament to play ‘bad cop’ in Brexit talks.

“We are going to be those who will complain about almost everything.”

So essentially the EP will have the same role in the negotiations that Wanderer has on these forums, to provoke thought and to question.

[vinny]

It's the final countdown!

[Obie]

The EU appears to have taken control of Brexit. For the last 9 months the tories were in control, but now it is the EU. They call the shots. One can only hope they will have pity on England and the innocent bystanders in this nonesense.

[secret.simon]

Are the Brits bonkers to Brexit?

Britain’s treaty with Europe is dead. Time to strike a new one. (So says the Guardian, not the Telegraph)

The UK should not let this Brexit crisis go to waste – neither should the EU

What Britain’s post-Brexit immigration policy could look like?

Remainers need to stop sounding like they want Brexit Britain to fail

Survey suggesting that family immigration to the UK is one that just over half the people surveyed would restrict.

[secret.simon]

What the EU27 want from Brexit

The EU Just Put Out an Awkward Cartoon and It Is Everything

[secret.simon]

These Europeans Are Already Leaving The UK Because Of Brexit - I wonder how the public would react if the Brexodus emigration causes the net migration numbers to hit the "tens of thousands", albeit temporarily.

Don’t underestimate how much Britons care about blue passports

Polling expert: Brits want May to get a Brexit deal that the EU has already shot down several times - That does mean guaranteed disappointment.

It's not just a case of Britain wanting to have its cake and eat it. It's much more fundamental than that. The British public disagrees with the recipe by which the cake is baked.

[mkhan2525]

There is still a possibility the UK will adopt the Norway model if a free trade agreement is not reached in 2 years since no separate withdrawal notiifcation has been given under Article 127 of the EEA Treaty.

[secret.simon]

Exiting the EU automatically takes us out of the EEA Agreement, unless we apply to remain in it by joining EFTA.

Article 126
1. The Agreement shall apply to the territories to which the Treaty establishing the European Economic Community is applied and under the conditions laid down in that Treaty, and to the territories of Iceland, the Principality of Liechtenstein and the Kingdom of Norway.

As can be seen, the EEA Agreement ceases to apply to the UK at Brexit because the TEU ceases to apply to the UK at that point in time and the UK is not a part of Iceland, Liechtenstein or Norway.

The UK may remain a signatory to the EEA Agreement, but the EEA Agreement will not apply to the UK.

[secret.simon]

Brexit by numbers - Bloomberg

Tory voters’ hard line on immigration gives Theresa May a Brexit headache

Pro-Brexit group unveils plan to cut net migration to 50,000 a year - Essentially, they are arguing for Tier 2 salary requirements (of £35,000 and above) to be applied to all migrants, inclding EU migrants.

[Obie]

Brexit by numbers - Bloomberg

Tory voters’ hard line on immigration gives Theresa May a Brexit headache

Pro-Brexit group unveils plan to cut net migration to 50,000 a year - Essentially, they are arguing for Tier 2 salary requirements (of £35,000 and above) to be applied to all migrants, inclding EU migrants.

I thought we could count on you for this piece of information. You never let us down.

[secret.simon]

I thought we could count on you for this piece of information. You never let us down.

You are welcome. Always delighted to help inform and balance (i.e. moderate) a discussion.

Brussels tells Britain to cut red tape for EU citizens - The Times (subscription required for the full article).

[secret.simon]

Blogpost suggesting that the two year limit on negotiations can be bypassed.

Can the Brexit clock be stopped?

[secret.simon]

UK tries to put EU nationals off applying for residency

...
According to new guidance released this month, EU citizens are instead advised to sign up for emailed news alerts that will tell them if and when they need to take action over their UK residence. However, there is no indication the British government is offering any new guarantees over their status post-Brexit.

The updated advice — initially emailed to immigration professionals and now posted on the Home Office website — clearly discourages EU nationals from embarking on the 85-page residence application.
...
One immigration lawyer said that while the Home Office had always maintained EU citizens were under no legal obligation to secure residence in Britain before Brexit, the guidance now amounted to officials saying “quite forcefully . . . ‘please, don’t apply’”.

Nick Rollason, partner and head of business immigration at law firm Kingsley Napley, said the message was an attempt by the Home Office “to calm people down and allay their fears that they need documentation”. He suggested that officials were trying to delay an expected avalanche of applications until the Brexit negotiations provided greater clarity on the rights of EU nationals in Britain.

“I don’t think there’s any question that the Home Office will eventually put in place a process that allows EU nationals to prove their residence in an easier, quicker way,” Mr Rollason said. “The idea would be that the Home Office could deal with applications more easily and applicants could send in fewer documents.

According to Home Office figures, more than 92,000 permanent residence applications were received from EU nationals in 2016. While the latest data have not been published, the total number is expected to be well over 100,000.The figure has jumped steeply since last June’s referendum but it still represents only a fraction of the estimated 3m EU citizens currently in the UK.
...