BREXIT-- Threat or Opportunity

[Wanderer]

I am reminded of Brexiters and their perceptions during an episode of 'Peep Show'....

"Mark: I'm going to go to bed.

Jeremy: You're not going anywhere Mark, you can't say you're going to bed at 9 in the evening. You're going to sit there and smile, and talk about something funny you've seen on reality TV. And stop going on and on about the Euro, we're in it now and there's nothing you can do about it!

Mark: We are not in the Euro, Jeremy! So you can have your squalid little night, I'm going to read Roy Jenkins on Winston Churchill."

[Petaltop]

Was it Dateline London? If so, your description of the participants is quite interesting.

I don't know as it was just background noise, and noise it was with the shouty elderly Frenchman and overtalking old woman.

The Remain participant is the (literally and metaphorically) outspoken Polly Toynbee of the Guardian.

Shudder. I just googled the name and that is the one. She seems to like the sound of her own voice.

The French journalist has been on a few of the Dateline London programmes lately.

Why? All he shouts is the same thing over and over again. "Retirement home" is what i thought of after a while.

[HRH]

Interesting discussion on TV in the early hours of this morning.
They had a male Brexiter;
a very overpowereing, talking over everyone, old Remain female;
a very old Frenchman who was angry, shouting and waving his arms around,
a young, clam, educated, German woman.

Was it Dateline London? If so, your description of the participants is quite interesting.

The Remain participant is the (literally and metaphorically) outspoken Polly Toynbee of the Guardian.

The French journalist has been on a few of the Dateline London programmes lately.

The German journalist this week and the Irish journalist the week before last were more understanding of the Brexit point of view. Indeed, the Irish journalist spelt out a more coherent case for Brexit than the Brexiteer on that week's programme.

Ya it was repeat telecast of Dateline London which they aired couple of days ago.

[secret.simon]

Into the long grass? A German newspaper thinks that London is not expected to trigger Article 50 till after the German elections in August 2017.

Deutsche Welle - EU Parliament mulls bloc's post-Brexit future

However, the European Commission does not expect London to formally apply to leave the bloc until September 2017, German newspaper "Handelsblatt" reported, citing sources at the EU's executive body.

"If a British politician triggers Article 50, they will do so after the elections in France and Germany," one source told "WirtshaftsWoche," a sister publication of "Handelsblatt."

And in the meanwhile, we have a rerun of the second round of the presidential elections in Austria between a far-right and a centrist candidate most likely on October 2nd this year, referendums in Hungary on EU migrant relocation policy (October 2nd) and in Italy on internal constitutional reforms (also in October), but where the Prime Minster has announced he will stand down if he loses.

What will the impact of the Brexit vote be on these referendums/elections? Will it cause a rush to safety as it is supposed to have done in the Spanish elections, just three days after the Brexit vote? Or will it embolden parties that want to weaken the European Union?

[HRH]

Here are a couple of interesting reads.

http://www.cityam.com/244780/britain-no ... um=twitter

https://www.linkedin.com/hp/update/6156079006367113216

[secret.simon]

http://www.cityam.com/244780/britain-no ... um=twitter

I agree with the analysis in the CityAM article. I highly doubt that Brexit will actually occur.

What is more likely to occur is that the vote in the UK will provoke similar votes elsewhere, not necessarily exits, but clearly against EU policies. The EU will have to reflect on its direction of travel and it is highly likely that there would be intense and earnest debate between the federalist instincts in Brussels and the national leaders responding to their national electorates in elections.

Even if Juncker lasts his term (unlikely), there is a good chance that the next Commission President will not be a federalist like him and may even be a Eurosceptic from the eastern A8 countries.

The EU in 2019 may be significantly different from the EU in 2016.

[Obie]

Brexit triggers surge in support for EU as Eurosceptic nations seek to avoid UK's 'mess'

[Obie]

One of the leading brexit campaigner sadly passed away. Sad

[HRH]

Now we have Theresa May (Remainer) & Andrea Leadsom (Leaver). Interestingly as expected, they both are talking about exiting whilst Nicola Sturgent is bent on remaining in EU even if Scotland has to break away from GB & off course Northern Ireland which voted strongly to remain .

Perhaps that's the reason why other EU countries are speculating that UK won't be exiting after all.

[mkhan2525]

There is a 2-2 draw at full time so it's unlikely we will have a Brexit because there is no clear winner.

[Obie]

Brexit: 325 Tory MPs fail to turn up for House of Commons vote to guarantee EU nationals the right to remain in UK.

Even UKIP only MP went. Sad.

At least we know where the Tories priority does not lies.

[Richard W]

Abndrea Leadsom has argued for preserving the rights of EEA immigrants already here. The May camp's response is:

Now Mrs May has accused Mrs Leadsom of guaranteeing that foreign criminals would be given the right to settle in Britain.

Her retort comes after Mrs Leadsom gave a speech on Thursday where she attempted to put pressure on Mrs May by guaranteeing the status of EU nationals in the UK - insisting she would not use people as "bargaining chips".

This does not bode well.

[HRH]

Watched this Panorama episode yesterday http://www.bbc.co.uk/iplayer/episode/b0 ... ain-speaks.

I have been away from UK for the past two years. I am therefore not in touch with local people except for a couple of mates. However from what I understand & the BBC is trying to show that its only the benefit seekers & pensioners who have voted to exit.

Brexiters made a point that you as a citizen you feel the pinch only when you can't get your child in the school or get medical treatment/ doctors appointment because of over stretched resources.

Whilst I agree with them on the above point I don't really agree with the mentality of those people (both citizens & immigrants) whose sole purpose of life is to live on benefits. Government dished out all the benefits & facilities it could/ had during the times when population was low & when people had some self respect. Now we don't have any resources but just the legacy which surely can't pay the benefits.

Perhaps it is the government who should be blamed for spoiling people by incentivising them for doing nothing compared to those who work hard to earn a living.

Imagine yourself & your partner working hard to earn a living, buying/ renting property on the outskirts of London; while you see someone else who perhaps hasn't paid any tax or low taxes in his life, living in a million pounds worth of mansion in ealing/ hammermith/finchley for free, whilst receiving thousands of pounds worth of benefits to meet family expenses.

Perhaps I am being over critical but why would you have a quarter or half of dozen of kids when you can't even afford to bring even a single child in this world & raise him/her on your own. Is this all about getting bigger allowance & house?

There is nothing wrong in providing benefits to those who desperately need rather than who choose to. Benefits should be like insurance which is there to pay for your losses by putting back in the condition where you were before the event rather than making you better off & you wanting to claim more & more to gain things without working.

People like me have no personal grudges against the EU migrants but we feel cheated specially when we see that even their non eu extended family is welcomed in UK while our immediate isn't.
Whilst some of you would think that its an irrelevant post, I find it relevant to this context as this is the benefits & resources & government policies which is causing all this division.

[Petaltop]

Whilst I agree with them on the above point I don't really agree with the mentality of those people (both citizens & immigrants) whose sole purpose of life is to live on benefits. Government dished out all the benefits & facilities it could/ had during the times when population was low & when people had some self respect. Now we don't have any resources but just the legacy which surely can't pay the benefits.

Don't worry, the benefits Blair brought in for the lazy as a "vote winner", Tax Credits and Pension Credit, are ending. When MAC reported in 2014 on the Tax Credits welfare payment annual bill, that billions of pounds, a staggering 40% of that total annual bill, was being claimed by "foreign borns", it was the final nail in the Tax Credits coffin.

In 2015 the UK announced their plans, that the UK will be reducing Child Tax Credits to below the benefits for children in Germany , Sweden and France. That those without children will not be able to claim Working Tax Credits under the new scheme that replaces Tax Credits and neither would most parents as they will have to work. The new system will also reduce the amount they claim in benefits for housing for their children too. It starts to come in from 2017 for exisiting claimants.

Germany is worried they might end up with these people who use free movement for better benefits and have carried a report to see how EU law can be changed, so that people only get paid benefits at the same rate as they would get in their own country.

[secret.simon]

The mood music across Europe is getting anti-migrant. Even Sweden, the exemplar of welcoming immigration, will be tightening rules for migrants.

It may become more difficult to obtain a residence permit in Sweden

[Richard W]

The mood music across Europe is getting anti-migrant. Even Sweden, the exemplar of welcoming immigration, will be tightening rules for migrants.

It may become more difficult to obtain a residence permit in Sweden

This change seems only to affect refugees and the like.

[Obie]

The mood music across Europe is getting anti-migrant. Even Sweden, the exemplar of welcoming immigration, will be tightening rules for migrants.

It may become more difficult to obtain a residence permit in Sweden

I hope you are not confusing intra EU migration, which forms the cornerstone of the internal market, and for which there is a huge support in the EU, and exteenal EU migration, which some memberstate have issues with.

One cannot criticise Sweden. They have welcomed more desperate refugee and displaced people per head, than any other country in the EU. Yes there is strain on resource and ability to rehouse and provide services, but Sweden , Germany and Italy, and most especially Sweden and German are there nations that no one can criticise for their hospitality and compassion.

History will indeed judge them favourably.
They are the nations that their citizens should be proud to be a part of..

[ouflak1]

Sweden and German are there nations that no one can criticise for their hospitality and compassion.

History will indeed judge them favourably.

I just don't think I can agree with that. Their open-arms attitude directly resulted in the deaths of thousands of men, women and children (some of their bodies washing up on the beach). It was irresponsible to the point of gross inhumane immorality on a mass scale. If they really had any compassion, they would have sent planes and ships to the Middle East and Africa, and assured all of those migrants safe passage. Instead, these people are fleeced for everything they own before being tossed onto crates that cannot be described as 'seaworthy' before being dropped into Europe to scurry around begging for asylum. They are stripped of their possessions and their basic human dignity, and that's assuming they even survived the trip.

No, I think history will take a dim view of those that encouraged that tragedy to happen like it has.

[ILR1980]

Loud mouth Nigel got resign when it was time to do practical work. Gove didnt trusted the abilities of boris and back-stabbed him which made boris resign for race of PM. Leadsome did not trusted Gove and came forward to lead the country in crisis. Gove got eliminated and then leadsome also pulled out from competition..Did not brexit leadership made fool of themselves and portrayed themselves as incompetent who are just good in backstabbing and resigning ?

Now what do you all expect from Mother Theresa? Norwegian style relationship with EU? Delivering Brexit entirely without any compromises on freedom of movement/right of work etc ?

[HRH]

In a way I am glad that she appointed BoJo as incharge for BREXIT negotiations. It's an opportunity for him to show to the world that he can practice what he has been preaching for months whilst proving his ability to Gove.

I really hope that Mrs May mean every word she said during her first Prime Ministerial speech of making Britain a better Britain.

What makes Britain is the citizens of Britain. Perhaps the emphasis should be on the welfare & the protection of rights of Brits rather than favoring the nationals of other countries as a part of trade deal.

On one hand EU is very passionate about the free movement/ treaty rights & has been using it as trump card for BREXIT negotiations as a part of trade deal; while on other hand all EU countries are ruthlessly displaying their cheekiness by simply holding on & delaying visa applications for months. Someone posted on this very forum in Feb'16, that their application had been on hold since Aug'15, nor sure if he was granted visa or not. In my own case. I applied for my mum's irish visa on 07 Jan'16 & yet we don't have any response & worst of all they don't even have the courtesy to answer emails.

Since it's a post on immigration forum, I'll come straight to my single point agenda instead for making you all read something which might sound diplomatically correct but doesn't mean anything for us.

I really hope they introduce some fair immigration system to allow family members of those who have been law abiding citizens & contributing to the growth by paying taxes.

I have launched a petition. God willing if it gets approved by the committee, it shall go live before the end of this week.. Following that I will share the link.....
CAN I EXPECT YOU ALL TO SUPPORT MY PETITION TO PROTECT YOUR OWN RIGHTS.

[Casa]

Theresa May hasn't appointed Boris Johnson as 'the Minister for Brexit'. Boris is now the Foreign Secretary. David Davis has been named Secretary of State for Leaving the European Union.
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/po ... 35431.html

[HRH]

Theresa May hasn't appointed Boris Johnson as 'the Minister for Brexit'. Boris is now the Foreign Secretary. David Davis has been named Secretary of State for Leaving the European Union.
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/po ... 35431.html

You are right Casa. I got BoJo's job wrong

[Casa]

Theresa May hasn't appointed Boris Johnson as 'the Minister for Brexit'. Boris is now the Foreign Secretary. David Davis has been named Secretary of State for Leaving the European Union.
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/po ... 35431.html

You are right Casa. I got BoJo's job wrong

Let's hope that he hasn't

[Obie]

In his capacity as Foreign Secretary, he will almost certainly be involved in the negotiations.

[Wanderer]

In his capacity as Foreign Secretary, he will almost certainly be involved in the negotiations.

He can't even apply a guitar capo effectively.....