May 2018 Restricted COS

[Shaahin]

Moreover, do not count on "backlog clearance". In January the 45+ backlog got cleared, but in February 1700+ applicants were in the 45+ again. Even if this month threshold is 45+p again, next month 1700+ NEW applicants with higher than 45p would apply , and again it would be same story.

Can you please explain how the 45points backlog was cleared in january? Because from what I recall, the cut off was 46 points. and the backlog has only been increasing for 45points:

Figures of rejected CoS at 45 points-
December- 217
January- 385
February- 460
March- 421
April- 578

I didn't say 45 backlog, I said 45+ backlog. Over 45p bracket. 50+ salaries and SOL

[Shaahin]

This is a rough estimation based on the excel file and RCoS allocations



If things are similar as previous months, then there is no hope for below 46, including me!

Estimation of 45p applicants is linear increase from April, i.e. #April + (#April-#March)
Estimation of other brackets is either similar to above or simple moving average with weights 0.8,0.15,0.05.

Not very scientific estimations, and not even logically consistent table, but it tells the story.

Ps. Every cell is the new applicants, except for 45p which is cumulative.

This is from many pages ago in this thread. While I put the points wrong, e.g. 46p instead of 50p, the numbers tell the story. The above 45p brackets fill every month with 1600+ new applicants.

[rangaraga01]

Moreover, do not count on "backlog clearance". In January the 45+ backlog got cleared, but in February 1700+ applicants were in the 45+ again. Even if this month threshold is 45+p again, next month 1700+ NEW applicants with higher than 45p would apply , and again it would be same story.

I strongly agree with you. The only thing to expect now is if the cutoff is again 46 this month, then atleast there are atleast 100 to 150+ applications carried over to next month which can somehow clear the 45 pts backlog hopefully in june or july.

But the challenge is the count in 50k+ catgeory is also slightly growing month after month because employers now know only 50+ is best chance to get cos allocated.

[optimist08]

Moreover, do not count on "backlog clearance". In January the 45+ backlog got cleared, but in February 1700+ applicants were in the 45+ again. Even if this month threshold is 45+p again, next month 1700+ NEW applicants with higher than 45p would apply , and again it would be same story.

Can you please explain how the 45points backlog was cleared in january? Because from what I recall, the cut off was 46 points. and the backlog has only been increasing for 45points:

Figures of rejected CoS at 45 points-
December- 217
January- 385
February- 460
March- 421
April- 578

I didn't say 45 backlog, I said 45+ backlog. Over 45p bracket. 50+ salaries and SOL

Yes, I understand. Backlog will obviously be in the 45 and below points only as they are the ones that are getting rejected again and again. But is it possible that every month more and more new applicants are coming at above 45? Because this situation seems absurd.

[Shaahin]

So the whole situation is simple:
1. There are more than 1600 new applicants with 50+ points, i.e. 50k salary or more OR shortage jobs
2. The 45p bracket, [45k,50k) salary, has ~700 applicants now in May.
3. Since there is no tie-breaking rule, even if after clearing +50p there are a couple of hundred certificates remained, they would be fewer than ~700 applicants of 45p bracket. So none of 45p bracket would be given any approval.
4. Next month again +1600 new applicants and again the same story.

[catinjapan]

Just got the news that my application was rejected.

40 points, non-SOL.
20 = RLMT
20 = £40k salary.

My employer has been applying since December and had said this was the last month they'd attempt. Time to close the curtains!

Good luck to everyone else.

[Shaahin]

Yes, I understand. Backlog will obviously be in the 45 and below points only as they are the ones that are getting rejected again and again. But is it possible that every month more and more new applicants are coming at above 45? Because this situation seems absurd.

It is also strange to me. So I expect the peak of distribution to be on 45p, but it seems the distribution has a peak at higher points, and it is left skewed, very odd!

Even without increase in the number of +45p applicants, as far as we have ~700 at 45p, we need to have fewer than 1300 applicants with higher than 45p to have a chance for 45p bracket. I did not know that so many high profile or SOL applicants are coming every month! Otherwise, I would negotiate over 46k salary that I have.

[hiend]

Do you see any chances for 45K for August or September?

[optimist08]

Yes, I understand. Backlog will obviously be in the 45 and below points only as they are the ones that are getting rejected again and again. But is it possible that every month more and more new applicants are coming at above 45? Because this situation seems absurd.

It is also strange to me. So I expect the peak of distribution to be on 45p, but it seems the distribution has a peak at higher points, and it is left skewed, very odd!

Even without increase in the number of +45p applicants, as far as we have ~700 at 45p, we need to have fewer than 1300 applicants with higher than 45p to have a chance for 45p bracket. I did not know that so many high profile or SOL applicants are coming every month! Otherwise, I would negotiate over 46k salary that I have.

Exactly.

Im at 44k salary and this is exactly what I was thinking. Moreover, if everything was fine till november, I don't understand how so many fresh applications are being made EVERY month above 45 points after december, 2017 suddenly. Dont understand the sudden increase. Also, wanted to know one thing, please let me know if you have nay knowledge on this. Can a company have 10 certificates that they took in november and still allot it to candidates coming in may/june? Is there an expiry date of these certificates. I understand that once granted, they have to be used within 3 months by the applicant. But can they company have 10 certificates in their system but have not allotted them still?

[chawlara]

Yes, I understand. Backlog will obviously be in the 45 and below points only as they are the ones that are getting rejected again and again. But is it possible that every month more and more new applicants are coming at above 45? Because this situation seems absurd.

It is also strange to me. So I expect the peak of distribution to be on 45p, but it seems the distribution has a peak at higher points, and it is left skewed, very odd!

Even without increase in the number of +45p applicants, as far as we have ~700 at 45p, we need to have fewer than 1300 applicants with higher than 45p to have a chance for 45p bracket. I did not know that so many high profile or SOL applicants are coming every month! Otherwise, I would negotiate over 46k salary that I have.

Exactly.

Im at 44k salary and this is exactly what I was thinking. Moreover, if everything was fine till november, I don't understand how so many fresh applications are being made EVERY month above 45 points after december, 2017 suddenly. Dont understand the sudden increase. Also, wanted to know one thing, please let me know if you have nay knowledge on this. Can a company have 10 certificates that they took in november and still allot it to candidates coming in may/june? Is there an expiry date of these certificates. I understand that once granted, they have to be used within 3 months by the applicant. But can they company have 10 certificates in their system but have not allotted them still?

If i am not wrong COS has an expiry of 3 months from the day it is assigned. Please verify with some legal firm.

[asakya]

Just got a confirmed refusal for 45 points non SOL
My company is trying since Jan. My current visa runs out this month and I will have to go back.
I had Tier 2 dependent and separated and since then my company has been applying. Not sure if this is ever going to change.. Just feel very dejected.

I am sorry to hear that. Clearly people's lives are being thrown in turmoil by this. No matter how bad one's situation is, there is always someone on this forum who is in an even worse position. I think I am unlucky at 45 as a first time applicant but I can't even imagine those at 40 trying for many months. Or at 35. It's really sad, and my best wishes to everyone here really.

[optimist08]

Yes, I understand. Backlog will obviously be in the 45 and below points only as they are the ones that are getting rejected again and again. But is it possible that every month more and more new applicants are coming at above 45? Because this situation seems absurd.

It is also strange to me. So I expect the peak of distribution to be on 45p, but it seems the distribution has a peak at higher points, and it is left skewed, very odd!

Even without increase in the number of +45p applicants, as far as we have ~700 at 45p, we need to have fewer than 1300 applicants with higher than 45p to have a chance for 45p bracket. I did not know that so many high profile or SOL applicants are coming every month! Otherwise, I would negotiate over 46k salary that I have.

Exactly.

Im at 44k salary and this is exactly what I was thinking. Moreover, if everything was fine till november, I don't understand how so many fresh applications are being made EVERY month above 45 points after december, 2017 suddenly. Dont understand the sudden increase. Also, wanted to know one thing, please let me know if you have nay knowledge on this. Can a company have 10 certificates that they took in november and still allot it to candidates coming in may/june? Is there an expiry date of these certificates. I understand that once granted, they have to be used within 3 months by the applicant. But can they company have 10 certificates in their system but have not allotted them still?

If i am not wrong COS has an expiry of 3 months from the day it is assigned. Please verify with some legal firm.

Yes, that is correct but after it has been assigned. What If the company does not assign the COS for many months? How long can you keep an unassigned COS for?

[reshn]

Hi guys. Got rejected with 50 points non SOL/PHD. Will try again next month. The struggle goes on, good luck to all.

[nwokediy]

Hi guys. Got rejected with 50 points non SOL/PHD. Will try again next month. The struggle goes on, good luck to all.

Sorry to hear. What is your occupation?

[help2018]

One of my friend recieved an email -

Refusal at 53k salary.

[nshar4]

Yes, I understand. Backlog will obviously be in the 45 and below points only as they are the ones that are getting rejected again and again. But is it possible that every month more and more new applicants are coming at above 45? Because this situation seems absurd.

It is also strange to me. So I expect the peak of distribution to be on 45p, but it seems the distribution has a peak at higher points, and it is left skewed, very odd!

Even without increase in the number of +45p applicants, as far as we have ~700 at 45p, we need to have fewer than 1300 applicants with higher than 45p to have a chance for 45p bracket. I did not know that so many high profile or SOL applicants are coming every month! Otherwise, I would negotiate over 46k salary that I have.

Have you heard yet on your 45pts application

[sha_ka]

Just got a confirmed refusal for 45 points non SOL
My company is trying since Jan. My current visa runs out this month and I will have to go back.
I had Tier 2 dependent and separated and since then my company has been applying. Not sure if this is ever going to change.. Just feel very dejected.

I am sorry to hear that. Clearly people's lives are being thrown in turmoil by this. No matter how bad one's situation is, there is always someone on this forum who is in an even worse position. I think I am unlucky at 45 as a first time applicant but I can't even imagine those at 40 trying for many months. Or at 35. It's really sad, and my best wishes to everyone here really.

I was at 35 applied Dec-March. Company did another RLMT with an increased salary and so 45 points April and now May. It just feels so difficult. The Lawyer says the cut off is at 60 k this month.

[optimist08]

Just got a confirmed refusal for 45 points non SOL
My company is trying since Jan. My current visa runs out this month and I will have to go back.
I had Tier 2 dependent and separated and since then my company has been applying. Not sure if this is ever going to change.. Just feel very dejected.

I am sorry to hear that. Clearly people's lives are being thrown in turmoil by this. No matter how bad one's situation is, there is always someone on this forum who is in an even worse position. I think I am unlucky at 45 as a first time applicant but I can't even imagine those at 40 trying for many months. Or at 35. It's really sad, and my best wishes to everyone here really.

I was at 35 applied Dec-March. Company did another RLMT with an increased salary and so 45 points April and now May. It just feels so difficult. The Lawyer says the cut off is at 60 k this month.

The cut off is 55 this time. I got rejected at 44.

[mahi8132]

What are the chances of 50k salary ( Non-SOL, Non-Phd ) getting in next few months.

[nshar4]

Just got a confirmed refusal for 45 points non SOL
My company is trying since Jan. My current visa runs out this month and I will have to go back.
I had Tier 2 dependent and separated and since then my company has been applying. Not sure if this is ever going to change.. Just feel very dejected.

I am sorry to hear that. Clearly people's lives are being thrown in turmoil by this. No matter how bad one's situation is, there is always someone on this forum who is in an even worse position. I think I am unlucky at 45 as a first time applicant but I can't even imagine those at 40 trying for many months. Or at 35. It's really sad, and my best wishes to everyone here really.

I was at 35 applied Dec-March. Company did another RLMT with an increased salary and so 45 points April and now May. It just feels so difficult. The Lawyer says the cut off is at 60 k this month.

The cut off is 55 this time. I got rejected at 44.

Is there any chance the home office is giving priority to doctors at lower pts , We seen a urologist getting approved at 45pts and someone at 43 pts

[optimist08]

What are the chances of 50k salary ( Non-SOL, Non-Phd ) getting in next few months.

50k got through last month (April). So of course there is hope for 50K.

[optimist08]

I am sorry to hear that. Clearly people's lives are being thrown in turmoil by this. No matter how bad one's situation is, there is always someone on this forum who is in an even worse position. I think I am unlucky at 45 as a first time applicant but I can't even imagine those at 40 trying for many months. Or at 35. It's really sad, and my best wishes to everyone here really.

I was at 35 applied Dec-March. Company did another RLMT with an increased salary and so 45 points April and now May. It just feels so difficult. The Lawyer says the cut off is at 60 k this month.

The cut off is 55 this time. I got rejected at 44.

Is there any chance the home office is giving priority to doctors at lower pts , We seen a urologist getting approved at 45pts and someone at 43 pts

My friend who got approval at 43 is a non-doctor. IT job. This is exactly what is confusing me. I am rejected at 44 and he has been approved at 43 with similar jobs.

[cali1234]

are u sure his salary is 43k

[optimist08]

are u sure his salary is 43k

yes, 500% sure.

[anilisanil]

I think there is a lot of confusion here, best is not to speculate and wait for results.

With the number of people asking how to calculate their points, not sure if we are getting an accurate view of the situation.

Say for example, people's over all salary can be 50K which might include unguaranteed bonuses bringing the salary below 50K. Or someone's basic salary is 43K and with guaranteed allowances it can be more than 55K.

There is only one sure way to know- wait for HO's report. Over and Out!

P.S: apologies if my posts raised false hopes for anyone.